The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer on 1 October 2026 published Canada’s Eastern Corridor High-Speed Rail: A Cost Analysis using Global Data (RP-2627-009-C), written for the Standing Senate Committee on National Finance. Its headline: building the baseline Alto route between Toronto and Québec City, excluding a possible Kingston amendment, could cost $75 billion to $113 billion (2024 dollars). The government’s estimate is $60–90 billion. This is a construction-cost estimate built from international project data. It is not an operating-cost study, a ridership forecast, or a final project budget.
The PBO’s top-end $113 billion is $23 billion above the government’s top-end $90 billion — and the report says the risk sits on the upside, not the downside.
What the PBO actually estimated
The PBO used a database of 94 high-speed rail lines from the Transit Cost Project (NYU Marron Institute), with 57 detailed enough to test cost drivers. It assumed up to 850 km of new track. On that basis the government’s $60–90 billion works out to roughly $71–106 million per km. The PBO’s own estimate is $88–133 million per km, between about the 53rd and 76th percentiles of the international sample.
Its model assumes about 15 km of tunnel between Laval and Montréal, about 130 km of Canadian Shield between Ottawa and Peterborough (treated as roughly 100 km of elevated structure for costing), a 2029 construction start, and European-style cost efficiency. From the international data:
- each extra kilometre of tunnel adds about $169 million (range $142–196 million);
- each extra kilometre of elevated structure adds about $153 million ($132–175 million);
- each year’s later start adds about $1.5 billion ($1.1–2.0 billion) in real terms.
The PBO says it set the range asymmetrically because a first-of-its-kind Canadian build is more likely to run over than under. A bootstrap check in the appendix puts a 1-in-40 upper tail at $243 billion. That figure is a stress marker in the methodology, not the PBO’s estimate.
The U.K. and U.S. warning
After controlling for tunnels, viaducts, and start dates, U.K. and U.S. projects cost roughly 4.5 times European ones in the PBO’s sample. The range runs about 3 to 7.3 times, and it rests on only three observations, including California’s Merced–Bakersfield segment and HS2. The PBO blames land acquisition, permitting, litigation, design changes, and weak project management, not engineering. It notes Bill C-5 (One Canadian Economy Act) and the High-Speed Rail Network Act enacted through Bill C-15 on 26 March 2026 were designed to cut those risks. They deem line-location approval given, consolidate review under one Impact Assessment Act process, give Alto a right of first refusal on land, and amend the Expropriation Act. The report says those measures “may reduce — but do not eliminate” legal, permitting, and schedule risk, and that if they fail, costs could rise well beyond its range.
Kingston is outside the number
On 22 June 2026 the government directed Alto to study a southern option between Peterborough and Ottawa with a possible Kingston stop. The PBO did not cost it. It says the route could add about 50 km. It would avoid more of the Shield, but it could cross the Frontenac Arch Biosphere and denser settled areas, and it would need more land and more consultation with Indigenous communities. The PBO calls these “significant risks” of U.K./U.S.-style escalation.
Jobs and GDP during construction
For the first segment, Ottawa–Montréal, the PBO estimates construction would raise real GDP by about $1.8 billion in 2029 and $2.0 billion by 2033, with employment about 4,300 higher in the first year and 9,000 by the fifth. These are annual level effects, not cumulative, and the PBO calls them “high level and directional.”
What the government and Alto said
The Canadian Press reported that an Alto spokesperson called the PBO projections similar to and “consistent with Alto’s working estimate,” and said an initial business case is expected in the first half of 2027. A spokesperson for Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon said the government would incorporate “relevant findings.” CP also reported that Conservatives want the project cancelled and that the Bloc Québécois fears it is being rushed. Those are reported reactions, not part of the PBO document.
What this piece refuses
Do not say the PBO “found Alto will cost $113 billion.” That is the top of a range for the baseline route only. Do not treat the $243 billion bootstrap tail as a forecast. Do not import Alto development-budget spend figures from independent coverage (for example “$265.9 million of $4.3 billion”); they are not in this report and were not re-verified here. Do not add operating costs or subsidies — the PBO says those belong to its second report on ridership.
Contested: Supporters say Bills C-5 and C-15 and a European-style delivery model keep the line inside a range Alto calls consistent with its own. Critics say an unreleased route, the Shield, a Montréal tunnel, and a possible Kingston detour make $113 billion a floor for disappointment, not a ceiling. The verified ledger is the PBO range and its stated assumptions.
Bottom line
Verified as of 5 October 2026: the PBO (1 Oct) estimates $75–113 billion (2024 dollars) to build the baseline Alto route, versus the government’s $60–90 billion, with Kingston not costed and operating economics left to a second report. Watch Alto’s business case (first half of 2027, per CP), the route release, and the PBO ridership study.
